Flutter Entertainment has shared an update on how US sports results impacted its 2024 Q4 trading. The results, driven by an unusually high rate of NFL favorites winning, led to revised revenue and profit expectations. Here’s a breakdown of the key takeaways:

  • The 2024/2025 NFL season has been one of the most customer-friendly in two decades, with favorites consistently winning. This resulted in an estimated adverse gross gaming revenue (GGR) impact of $438m. The period most affected was November 12 to December 31, especially in NFL parlay bets.
  • Revenue forecasts for the US in 2024 have been adjusted, with a $370m decrease from the midpoint of earlier guidance. The new revenue estimate now stands at $5.78bn, down from the previous range of $6.05bn–$6.25bn. Adjusted EBITDA for the year is now estimated to be $505m, reflecting a $205m reduction.
  • For Q4 2024, the net revenue margin for Flutter’s US sportsbook is expected to be 6.6%, driven by FanDuel’s parlay product. This includes a structural margin of 14.5%, which improved year-over-year by 100 basis points. However, unfavorable sports results negatively impacted margins by 390bps, while promotional spend added a further 4.0%.
  • Q4 US revenue is now projected at $1.59bn, with Adjusted EBITDA estimated at $161m.
  • Outside the US, the Group’s performance has been steadier, with UK and Ireland seeing favorable results, particularly in the English Premier League. This has led to an estimated 1% revenue increase and a 2% EBITDA increase above prior guidance for 2024.
  • A full update will be provided during Flutter’s Q4 earnings release on March 4, 2025. Formal guidance for 2025 will also be shared at that time.