A new warning has emerged over the potential impact of a UK betting tax increase. Fresh research from EY, commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), suggests that higher duties could threaten jobs, weaken the economy, and fuel the rise of the gambling black market. The findings directly challenge claims that tougher tax measures would deliver a windfall for the Treasury.

  • EY’s independent analysis shows that proposals from the SMF and IPPR could put more than 40,000 jobs at risk and cut £3.1bn from the UK’s economic contribution. The research also found that £8.4bn in betting stakes could shift to unregulated operators, undermining consumer protection and reducing government tax receipts.

  • The proposed plans would increase taxes on online gaming from 21% to 50% and on sports betting from 15% to 25%. EY’s modelling suggests the Treasury’s short-term gain would reach just over £1bn — far below the £3.2bn projected by the think tanks — and could fall to under £500m once job losses and lower corporate taxes are factored in.

  • The analysis also highlights a major overestimation of market growth in the think tanks’ forecasts. While their projections assume a 31% expansion by 2025, EY estimates actual growth between 2023 and 2026 will be closer to 4%. The firm says these inflated assumptions distort the potential revenue impact of any tax rise.

  • BGC Chief Executive Grainne Hurst warned that higher taxes would lead to “fewer betting shops, casinos and bingo halls, fewer jobs, and a huge boost to the growing, unsafe gambling black market.” She added that a stable tax regime and balanced regulation are key to protecting consumers and sustaining economic growth.

  • Operators have echoed those warnings, with Betfred saying a tax rise could close its 1,300 betting shops and cost nearly 7,000 jobs. Entain’s CEO Stella David has also cautioned that new duties could push more players towards unlicensed sites. EY concludes that further tax hikes would damage one of the UK’s most regulated and economically valuable industries.

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