Prediction market platforms have moved into the spotlight over the past year. Trading volumes surged around the 2024 US election and have remained high since. In France, prediction market platforms are classified as illegal gambling sites according to ANJ, the French National Gambling Authority.

• ANJ has made clear that these operators are not authorised to offer services in France. Following contact with the regulator, Polymarket and Kalshi introduced geo-blocking to prevent access from France, excluding VPN usage. The authority says prediction market platforms mirror key features of online betting but operate without the consumer safeguards required in the regulated market.

• A typical contract on prediction market platforms is based on a binary outcome with a defined resolution source and closing date. Prices fluctuate depending on user positions and can be interpreted as an implied probability of the event occurring. Because positions can be resold before settlement, the model combines elements of betting exchanges and financial products.

• The ANJ has also highlighted addiction and integrity risks linked to prediction market platforms. It points to 24/7 availability, no built-in staking caps, no time limits and in some cases no age verification. “Prediction Markets are on the border between gambling and financial speculation, but they present real risks for users,” the regulator said.

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